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Iran's foreign minister warns Israel from Beirut it could suffer 'a huge earthquake'_我的网站

一 |     BEIRUT -- Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday called on Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza, warning that the war might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer “a huge earthquake.”Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters in Beirut that Lebanon’s Hezbollah group has taken all the scenarios of a war into consideration and Israel should stop its attacks on Gaza as soon as possible.Israel considers Hezbollah its most serious immediate threat, estimating it has some 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles that can hit anywhere in Israel. The group, which has thousands of battle-hardened fighters who participated in Syria’s 12-year conflict, also has different types of military drones.Hezbollah fighters have been on full alert along Lebanon’s borders with Israel following last Saturday’s attack by the militant Palestinian group Hamas that left hundreds of Israeli civilians and soldiers dead.On Saturday, the Israeli military said an Israeli drone strike along the border with Lebanon killed a “cell” that was trying to infiltrate into Israel. On Friday, Hezbollah said its fighters fired several rockets at four Israel positions along the border. On Saturday afternoon, Hezbollah fighters fired a barrage of rockets and shells at Israeli positions in the disputed Chebaa Farms. Israeli troops fired back on nearby areas in southern Lebanon. Amirabdollahian discussed during a meeting in Beirut Saturday the situation in Gaza and the region with the top Hamas official in exile, Saleh Arouri, and the leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group, Ziad Nakhaleh, according to Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV.Hamas officials have repeatedly said that last Saturday’s attack on southern Israel that killed over 1,300 civilians and troops was the work of the Palestinian group and Iran had nothing to do with it. Hamas officials did not respond to calls by The Associated Press to confirm and give details about the meeting. Amirabdollahian left Beirut Saturday afternoon following a tour that took him to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where Tehran enjoys wide influence.Amirabdollahian said he met Friday Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who briefed him on the group’s conditions in Lebanon.“I know about the scenarios that Hezbollah has put in place,” Amirabdollahian said. “Any step the resistance (Hezbollah) will take will cause a huge earthquake in the Zionist entity.”Amirabdollahian added: “I want to warn the war criminals and those who support this entity before it's too late to stop the crimes against civilians in Gaza, because it might be too late in few hours.”With an eye toward Hezbollah, U.S. President Joe Biden has warned other players in the Middle East not to join the conflict and has sent American warships to the region and vowed full support for Israel.The Iranian foreign minister said he will be contacting U.N. officials in the Middle East because “there is still an opportunity to work on an initiative (to end the war) but it might be too late tomorrow.”The possibility of a new front in Lebanon brings back bitter memories of a vicious monthlong war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 that ended in a stalemate and a tense detente between the two sides.。    　　美国财政部试图通过回购长期国债来缓解市场压力，但华尔街越来越怀疑，这一举措能否真正压低10年期和30年期美债收益率。

二 | 　　高盛集团、富国银行等机构的策略师认为，回购虽然能够减少长期债券的净供给、改善市场流动性，却难以改变推动长端收益率持续走高的基本面因素。　　上周美国财政部宣布扩大长期美债回购计划后，10年期和30年期美债收益率一度下行。然而，美债市场很快重新转弱。　　上周后半段，即便美国财政部长贝森特表示自己拥有“一整套工具”，同时有报道称财政部可能动用现金储备购买国债，长期收益率仍再次走高。

三 | 　　在华尔街看来，这种市场反应说明，投资者真正担忧的并不是美债短期流动性，而是美国不断扩大的财政赤字、持续存在的通胀压力以及经济增长韧性。　　这些因素正在推动投资者要求更高的长期期限溢价，仅靠财政部买债难以扭转这一趋势。

四 | 　　高盛策略师在报告中指出，财政部增加长期美债回购并没有解决近期长端市场波动的主要来源，即使进一步扩大回购规模，也不太可能从根本上重置利率水平。　　高盛认为，近期长端收益率上涨背后存在多重因素，包括美国经济周期韧性增强、市场重新评估美联储政策路径、财政压力、能源风险，以及人工智能资本支出和经济增长乐观预期等。　　换言之，财政部回购国债可以改变供需结构，却无法消除这些宏观因素。　　富国银行的判断同样谨慎。

五 | 该行策略师认为，财政部回购确实意味着长期美债净供给出现“有意义的减少”，同时也释放出政府对债券市场流动性的担忧，但这不足以推动长期收益率持续下降。　　富国银行认为，要让长端收益率真正回落，还需要新的宏观催化剂，例如经济增长和通胀明显放缓、美联储资产负债表及利率政策的不确定性下降、财政整顿，或者投资级企业债发行规模放缓。　　也就是说，只有基本面发生变化，长期美债才可能迎来较持久的上涨行情。　　其他华尔街机构也普遍认为，美债收益率曲线仍面临陡峭化压力。法国兴业银行和德意志银行均预计，长期收益率仍可能继续高于短端，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，这与贝森特希望通过财政部行动压低长端融资成本的目标相悖。　　不过，并非所有机构都对长期美债持悲观态度。花旗认为，财政部回购行动为20年期美债创造了更具吸引力的风险收益比。　　随着财政部可能进一步减少20年期国债拍卖规模，加上潜在的养老金资金需求以及未来经济数据走软，20年期美债可能成为政策调整的最大受益者之一。　　法国兴业银行则认为，扩大回购规模虽然难以改变推动收益率上行的宏观力量，但有助于改善市场流动性和市场功能。更重要的是，此次行动释放出一个信号：财政部可能愿意采取更加积极、灵活的措施来缓解美债供给过剩问题。　　目前，市场正等待美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话。

六 | 投资者希望从中寻找9月议息会议的政策线索，但部分机构认为，沃什未必会提供传统意义上的明确前瞻指引。　　如果美联储释放偏鹰派信号，保留进一步收紧政策的可能性，反而可能推高短端利率，并进一步加剧收益率曲线的压力。

七 | （文章来源：财联社）。

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